the raindrops: Defense ranked by Rate2

February 03, 2004

Defense ranked by Rate2

I'm a big fan of Clay Davenport's work.  Not only his ability to equalize and standardize things like offensive production (EqA), park factors, and defense (Rate2), but also his insistence that the numbers make sense intuitively.  I can look at an EqA of .257 and "know" what it means (about league average), just like I can see a park factor of 1088 and understand it's probably not fun to pitch there.

Rate2 is an extension of the original Davenport Fielding Translations which takes into account things like balls in play, ballpark tendencies, groundball/flybll rates, and the left/right splits caused by the handedness of a pitching staff.  All of these numbers are crunched until we get "Rate," defined in the Baseball Prospectus glossary as:

A way to look at the fielder's rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc.

Rate2 takes a few additional steps "with adjustments made for league difficulty and to normalize fielding statistics across time."  Davenport covers all the bases and then spits out a number that I can easily comprehend and utilize.  I can see a player with a 106 Rate2 and know he's worth 6 runs above average for every 100 games he plays.  If I assume the same player plays a full season, he's likely to save about 10 runs, or 1 win.  Nice and easy.  It's one thing to crunch the numbers, it's a whole 'notha thing to make them easy to grasp.  Clay does this.

With news being slow these days, I went over to ESPN's sortable statistics and took the top thirty players at each position ranked by games started, and arranged them according to their 2003 Rate2.  Below you will find the infield rankings.  I'll put up the outfield and catcher rankings tomorrow. 

Looking at the first chart, you can see the difference between Chicago Cubs shortstop Alex Gonzalez and New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter over the course of 100 games is 33 runs.  If you assume both will play a full season, it's safe to say Gonzalez saves 50 runs above Jeter with his glove.  In other words, five wins.  Of course, Jeter makes up this ground with his bat, but I turn to Rate2 when I want to quantify a player's defensive value.  Like I said, nice and easy. 

One thing to keep in mind is that the numbers listed below are only one seasons worth of data, and a player's Rate2 can jump up and down from year to year, just like his EqA.  It helps to look at previous performance before coming to any conclusions.  Also, analysts like Davenport are doing their best to quantify defensive performance, but no one that I know of has yet to claim a metric has any predictive ability.

SS

Player, Team(s) 2003 Rate2
Alex Gonzalez, ChC 114
David Eckstein, Ana 110
Jose Reyes, NYM 110
Julio Lugo, Hou/TB 107
Rey Sanchez, Sea/NYM 107
Adam Everett, Hou 106
Cesar Izturis, LA 105
Jose Valentin, CWS 105
Orlando Cabrera, Mon 104
Alex Gonzalez, Fla 104
Jhonny Peralta, Cle 104
Angel Beroa. KC 103
Alex Rodriguez, Tex 103
Jack Wilson, Pit 102
Carlos Guillen, Sea 102
Jimmy Rollins, Phi 101
Ramon Santiago, Det 101
Juan Uribe, Col 101
Royce Clayton, Mil 100
Chris Woodward, Tor 99
Edgar Renteria, StL 98
Deive Cruz, Bal 98
Cristian Guzman, Min 98
Rich Aurilia, SF 98
Alex Cintron, Ari 97
Nomar Garciaparra, Bos 95
Miguel Tejada, Oak 94
Rafael Furcal, Atl 90
Ramon Vazquez, SD 87
Derek Jeter, NYY 81

2B

Player, Team(s) 2003 Rate2
Orlando Hudson, Tor 120
Adam Kennedy, Ana 112
Ray Durham, SF 112
Bret Boone, Sea 108
Alex Cora, LA 108
Brandon Phillips, Cle 108
Mark Ellis, Oak 107
Placido Polanco, Phi 107
Luis Castillo, Fla 105
Jeff Reboulet, Pit 105
Marcus Giles, Atl 104
Junior Spivey, Ari 104
Brian Roberts, Bal 103
Mark Grudzielanek, ChC 102
Warren Morris, Det 102
Abraham O. Nunez, Pit 102
D'Angelo Jimenez, CWS/Cin 101
Alfonso Soriano, NYY 100
Jeff Kent, Hou 100
Mark Loretta, SD 98
Ronnie Belliard, Col 98
Desi Relaford, KC 97
Eric Young, Mil/SF 96
Roberto Alomar, CWS/NYM 94
Luis Rivas, Min 94
Bo Hart, StL 94
Michael Young, Tex 92
Jose Vidro, Mon 91
Marlon Anderson, TB 91
Todd Walker, Bos 84

3B

Player, Team(s) 2003 Rate2
Eric Chavez, Oak 113
Geoff Blum, Hou 111
Damian Rolls, TB 111
Morgan Ensberg, Hou 110
Aaron Boone, NYY/Cin 109
Jose Hernandez, ChC/Pit/Col 109
David Bell, Phi 107
Corey Koskie, Min 104
Todd Zeile, NYY/Mon 104
Tony Batista, Bal 103
Scott Rolen, StL 103
Adrian Beltre, LA 103
Bill Mueller, Bos 103
Joe Crede, CWS 102
Chris Stynes, Col 102
Robin Ventura, NYY/LA 102
Casey Blake, Cle 101
Mike Lowell, Fla 100
Ty Wigginton, NYM 99
Sean Burroughs, SD 99
Joe Randa, KC 98
Shea Hillenbrand, Bos/Ari 98
Aramis Ramirez, ChC/Pit 97
Hank Blalock, Tex 97
Jeff Cirillo, Sea 97
Vinny Castilla, Atl 96
Troy Glaus, Ana 93
Edgardo Alfonzo, SF 92
Wes Helms, Mil 89
Eric Hinske, Tor 86
Eric Munson, Det 86

1B

Player, Team(s) 2003 Rate2
Lyle Overbay, Ari 120
Todd Helton, Col 118
Richie Sexson, Mil 113
Travis Lee, TB 112
Ken Harvey, KC 110
Shea Hillenbrand, Bos/Ari 110
Kevin Millar, Bos 107
Tino Martinez, StL 106
Derrek Lee, Fla 105
Carlos Delgado, Tor 104
J.T. Snow, SF 104
Doug Mientkiewicz, Min 103
Wil Cordero, Mon 102
Ryan Klesko, SD 102
Jason Giambi, NYY 102
Sean Casey, Cin 100
Jeff Conine, Bal/Fla 100
Scott Spiezio, Ana 100
John Olerud, Sea 99
Paul Konerko, CWS 99
Mark Teixeira, Tex 98
Randall Simon, ChC/Pit 98
Jim Thome, Phi 97
Ben Broussard, Cle 97
Eric Karros, ChC 96
Robert Fick, Atl 93
Jeff Bagwell, Hou 92
Scott Hatteberg, Oak 91
Carlos Pena, Det 88
Jason Phillips, NYM 88
Fred McGriff, LA 81

Enjoy.  Leave any observations/questions below.

Posted by Avkash at February 3, 2004 07:30 PM
Comments

I would actually just like to know what you think about Wigginton only giving up at the most 2 runs per year despite the fact that his range is bad and how a guy like Cirillo, who is supposedly a good defensive 3B, is ranked below him?

Posted by: Jeremy Heit at February 3, 2004 08:52 PM

Cirillo's 2003 seems out of the ordinary compared to the rest of his career (108). Maybe he wasn't as sharp as usual due to inconsistant playing time. The same goes for Todd Zeile. His career rate is lower (96).

I think the main thing to take from the thirdbase chart is how small the range of numbers is from the best to worst, as compared to other positions, even first base.

Offhand, the best gloves at that positiion I can think of are Rolen's last few seasons and Bobby Bo back when Leyland was sending him out there. Looking at their career Rate2, the difference is 11. Over the course of a full season, that's two wins. No small matter, but we are talking about one of the best and worst guys at the position; the impact of defense at third seems so small I think a well informed team would stress offense there, more so than even first base.

It's something that needs to be examined more closely before I would feel comfortable punting defense all together. Food for thought.

Posted by: Avkash at February 3, 2004 11:20 PM

Wow, I'm very surprised to see Giambi rated above-average by this (or any) method. Nick Johnson apparently didn't play enough games in the field to make the list. Assuming you have time on your hands, would you mind posting his total?

Posted by: Scott at February 4, 2004 07:12 PM

I would think that Pinto's and MGL's stats are the way to go here. The nice thing about Davenport and Win Shares fielding stats (as well as zone rating, don't forget that one) is that they were available in-season this past year.

However, for really accurate readings for players, at least from a data point of view, I think you should refer to MGL's and Pinto's analyses, because they're based on analysis of specific play-by-play data. I'm hoping that someone makes a breakthrough this season, and posts similar data during the year.

Data from both systems are freely available at this point.

Posted by: studes at February 4, 2004 11:07 PM

Scott,

Johnson's 2003 Rate2 is 104, down from his career mark of 106. Giambi's 2003 and career mark is 102. I should have mentioned that you can find any player's Rate2 at Baseball Prospectus on each player's individual card, which you can access by using the Player Search in the top right corner.

Studes,

Excellent point, and I use as many metrics as I can before jumping to any conclusions. MGL, Pinto, as well as Win Shares are useful tools.

Rate2 was the only one of the four that wasn't already listed in chart form (that I know of), so I thought it would be a handy reference. The next step is to compare everyone using everything, which I'll try to do with the Mets.

Posted by: Avkash at February 5, 2004 08:52 PM

Have you seen Duncan's UZR? I'm sure it was a fluke, but 19 UZR runs in 366 innings is outstanding.

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